Why is the Yen So Volatile?

We have just witnessed the largest single-day drop in the Nikkei 225 index since 1987.

This is clearly a bad day for the stock market.

A decision made by the Bank of Japan during the summer ultimately triggered panic.

The frantic selling in the market led to an outbreak of massive losses.

What lies at the core of all this?

The yen and the unwinding of large-scale so-called "carry trades" on a global scale.

Now that the dust has settled, from hedge fund managers and investors in New York to business owners in Japan, everyone faces an urgent question: Do we need to reconsider the role of the yen in the global economy?

Advertisement

The yen is one of the most important currencies in the world.

In the foreign exchange market with a daily turnover of $7.5 trillion, it ranks third in trading volume, just behind the US dollar and the euro.

Over a trillion dollars' worth of yen is traded every day.

One of the main reasons for its popularity is that you can borrow yen at a relatively low cost and invest it elsewhere.

This is due to the very low interest rates in Japan, thanks to the sluggish economy over the past few decades.

The combination of deflation, rising debt, and an aging population has suppressed Japan's economic growth since the boom of the 1980s.

As a result, the Bank of Japan has maintained extremely low interest rates to encourage borrowing and consumption.

In fact, interest rates have been below zero – for years, they have been negative.

This has kept the yen on a continuous depreciation trend, which the market has become accustomed to.

But all of this changed in March when the interest rates were raised to 0%.

This may seem insignificant, but the problem is that when central banks raise interest rates, their currencies tend to strengthen.

For example, the Federal Reserve initiated the largest interest rate hike cycle since the 1980s, and the US dollar has therefore appreciated significantly.

According to some indicators, the US dollar has set an absolute historical record.

As central banks around the world began to cut interest rates in the summer, inflation began to ease in some areas, but the Bank of Japan chose to take a different path and raise interest rates again.

Many people were surprised by this.

The Bank of Japan's explanation is that we see rising prices, rising wages, and there is a risk that future inflation may get out of control.

The timing was extremely poor.

Soon after, unexpectedly poor employment data from the United States triggered concerns about whether the Federal Reserve had started to cut interest rates too late.

Panic spread among investors, and you can see this in Wall Street's favorite panic index – the VIX.

The VIX soared to levels not seen since the pandemic.

The market exploded, and worse was yet to come.

People felt that this seemingly easy carry trade was no longer viable.

So they began to exit quickly, leading to a self-fulfilling chain reaction, with the unwinding of trades one after another.

So, what is a carry trade?

Why do they exacerbate financial market volatility?

Simply put, a carry trade is a popular strategy of borrowing money at very low interest rates (in this case, yen) and then investing it in higher-yielding assets.

For example, you go to the bank, and they offer you a credit card fee of 1%, but you can borrow at a 0% interest rate.

Then you borrow money and use it to buy Google stocks, Australian bank stocks, or some corporate bonds.

You might get a return from this trade because it's a bit like investing "free" money.

However, if things go extremely wrong, you not only lose money in stocks but also have to repay your credit card company.

This is exactly what happened in August.

Popular carry trade bets included US tech stocks, but just as all this unfolded, poor earnings reports from these companies caused their stock prices to plummet.

The yen - the currency everyone was selling to fund this carry trade - suddenly appreciated significantly.

At the same time, people began to sell everything they had to pay the margins they had to repay.

This made the yen trigger global market fluctuations.

It also had a huge impact on daily life in Japan.

Little known is that Japan is home to the world's largest retail foreign exchange traders.

This actually drives the carry trades we know today.

You might be a barber in Shinjuku, cutting hair during the day and going home at night to turn on your computer and trade Turkish lira or US dollars with yen.

Or you might be a retiree who takes stock trading as a hobby.

88-year-old Shigeru Fujimoto, in Kobe, began his amateur trading career at the age of 19 when he ran a pet shop.

He started day trading on the internet at the age of 66.

According to him, he has made about 2 billion yen - equivalent to more than $13 million - since then and has experienced several market crashes.

Recently, after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates...

The biggest challenge in understanding what is happening with the yen now is understanding why it is happening at this time.

Over the past few decades, Japan's economy has been sluggish, with wages, prices, and growth all stagnant.

You could say that this is a kind of stability to some extent.

But if you want high-speed growth, Japan is not an ideal place.

Until now.

In 2024, wages increased by 5%, which is unprecedented in 30 years.

Inflation has remained above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, so in a situation where growth is seen for the first time in decades, no one would have expected the Bank of Japan to take any risky actions.

And that is exactly what they did...

They are looking at prices, they are looking at economic data, and they say it is data-driven.

So this is the reason why the Bank of Japan decided to raise interest rates.

After the chaos, the Bank of Japan actually stated that they would not raise interest rates again if the market is unstable.

The basic situation we see in this market crash is that Japan's actions - the actions of the Bank of Japan - may have a significant impact on the rest of the world.

In the global market, many experts are rethinking how strong or weak the yen should be, considering the uncertain path of Japanese interest rates.

Not to mention hot carry trade targets like the Mexican peso or the Brazilian real, which are also facing challenges.

For those in Tokyo, Kobe, or picturesque Kyoto, uncertainty remains.